A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
